Over three years, PEP supported 11 projects across Africa, Asia and Latin America to inform inclusive adaptation and recovery policies responding to economic and social effects of the Covid-19 crisis in developing countries. See Impact for more.
In-country teams of local researchers and government officers used macro and micro simulations, and field experiments, to produce timely and relevant analysis and identify effective and feasible policy action.
While the research teams in Ecuador, Nigeria, Pakistan and Zimbabwe had completed their work in 2022, the remaining seven teams completed their projects in 2023. Find out more below.
Findings and publications from simulations of policy responses and interventions to promote inclusive adaptation to and recovery from the Covid-19 crisis in:
The Covid-19 pandemic caused a drop in GDP in Argentina as well as an increase in poverty and unemployment, particularly among informal workers, those in the tourism sector, and young women with children. The government implemented several fiscal policies to address the deteriorating economic and social conditions caused by the Covid-19 crisis. These measures included the Emergency Family Income Program (IFE) to guarantee food access through supplementary income for vulnerable families. However, the effectiveness of the policy responses was unproven until a team of local PEP researchers conducted a series of microsimulations. They found that most government policies efficiently provided aid to households. However, policies aimed at retirees and pensioners did little to help reduce poverty.
The Covid-19 crisis has added to the economic struggles in Ethiopia, causing reduced household incomes, business closures, and decreased demand for goods and services. Using microsimulation techniques, a group of PEP researchers assessed the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on Ethiopian households. They found that the Covid-19 pandemic’s detrimental effect on household income and food prices led to an increase in poverty rates. In addition, the pandemic particularly affected women and people living in rural areas.
The Covid-19 pandemic left over 77% of households in Ghana struggling to meet their basic needs. Rising unemployment rates, lost wages, and diminished remittances hit low-income and vulnerable groups the hardest. The government implemented several policies to address these challenges and growing inequality as part of efforts to promote an inclusive pandemic recovery. These include policies to ensure access to household necessities. A team of local PEP researchers found that while free water and electricity to lifeline customers reduced poverty the most, all the policies implemented were only marginally effective and were not enough to offset the initial rise in poverty seen in 2020.
The economic impact of the Covid-19 crisis dealt a blow to Kenya’s once-improving growth prospects as economic output was slowed by the pandemic. In response, the national government implemented the Economic Recovery Strategy to address the effects of the pandemic on employment, domestic demand and production, and reduced international market access. A team of local PEP researchers found that the decline in output was uneven across industries and communities, highlighting the need for targeted policy responses.
The Covid-19 pandemic hit Vietnam hard, causing a surge in poverty and economic hardship. From January 2020, the disease quickly spread across the country, leading the government to restrict travel and close schools. Key industries, from trade to hospitality, have been seriously impacted, with many families losing vital sources of income, including remittances sent home by migrant populations. In response, Vietnam introduced Resolution No. 42 to support affected employers and employees, small household businesses, and those in need. An analysis by local PEP researchers found that continuing the existing social assistance program or supplementing it with additional resources would be the most promising policy response to the Covid-19 pandemic.
To deal with the consequences of the pandemic, the Benin government set up a response program worth more than 70 billion CFA francs. However, and despite the importance of agriculture in Benin’s economy, this programme was not effective in reaching small-scale farmers, particularly women farmers (who represent almost half the agricultural workforce) and soy producers.
A team of local PEP researchers found that targeting women soybean producers for response measures can support an inclusive response to the Covid-19 crisis. Response measures include facilitating access to information (e.g., prices) and inputs (e.g., credit, seeds, fertilisers, etc.) in the agricultural sector, and using ICT to strengthen theextension and advisory support system for farmers.
A team of local PEP researchers tested whether the combination of cash transfers, business literacy, and soft skills—a replication of a government intervention—can reshape resilience and mitigate the adverse effects of the Covid-19 crisis for marginalised youth in Côte d’Ivoire. They found that a combination of business training for youth and unconditional cash transfers can increase their chances of adapting to unexpected situations. The program can also reduce misperceptions about the pandemic and increase awareness of the risks of the disease.
