Multiple African countries are facing increased food insecurity due to trade disruptions from the war in Ukraine. A team of PEP researchers used modelling techniques to understand the economic and welfare losses in Africa. They showed how the impact on food security varies from country to country due to their different industry interlinkages and trade structures.
The team also identified policies that can improve food systems’ resilience. These ranged from stimulating domestic production(including by modernising farming techniques) to protecting vulnerable consumers through holistic social protection programs.
The researchers highlighted the importance for policymakers to consider international trade and food markets in addition to the local and regional food supply when designing measure to increase food security. The team called for the Global North countries imposing trade sanctions on Russia to evaluate the effectiveness of these sanctions in a global context and for mitigation strategies to be developed.
This project is a pan-Africaanalysis conducted by PEP as part of fast-track research initiative in partnership with the African Economic Research Consortium and Economic Research Forum. It aims to provide an African perspective on the effects of the war in Ukraine—relative to the rest of the world—using a global Computable General Equilibrium model.
